Regional Integration and Income Inequality: A Synthetic Counterfactual Analysis of the European Monetary Union

Author: Florence Bouvet, Ph.D.

Publication: Oxford Review of Economic Policy

Publication Date: April 5, 2021

Abstract:
In Europe, it is quite common for public opinions and national politicians to blame economic insecurity and rising inequality on deeper regional integration within the European Union (EU), and especially on the euro. There is, however, no empirical research that clearly identifies the euro as the cause of the recent increase in income inequality. Using the synthetic counterfactual methodology developed by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), I estimate what would have happened to inequality in both gross and net income within euro-area countries, had these countries not switched to the single currency. In most countries (especially peripheral countries), without the euro, gross-income inequality would have been lower, while net-income inequality would have been higher. These results imply that, while deeper economic integration might have exacerbated gross income inequality, lower interest rates allowed countries to counteract these disparities with their social welfare programmes.